Top Six Updates in FAA’s Recently Published Forecast Review and Approval Instructions Memorandum

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recently issued a memorandum outlining guidelines for their internal review and approval process of air traffic forecasts at both commercial service and general aviation (GA) airports throughout the United States. These new guidelines can differentiate the timing and process in which airports update their forecasts and manage and justify projects.  

We’re ready to help you navigate the new approval instructions, ensuring your airport is fully aware and prepared when it’s time for forecasts to be updated. Below, we’ve identified six key points of the memo, exploring their implications, and what next steps you can take. 

Navigating the 2024 FAA Forecast Review and Approval Instructions 

The FAA’s newly issued and adopted forecasting review and approval instructions are crucial for airports to consider when planning projects, securing funding, developing master plans, and more. The new processes look to streamline the review and approvals through the FAA and Airport District Offices (ADO) and incorporate a few changes in the processes considering the usage of the forecasts as well as the type and size of the airport. This memo outlines what FAA staff will be looking for when reviewing and approving forecasting documents. 

Here are six key updates to consider when preparing forecasting of project plans for your airport. 

1. New forecast documents for all medium and large-hub airports will be sent by the ADO to the FAA Headquarters for review. This could potentially add 45 days to the review and approval process from the time headquarters receives all required information. 
2. Non-towered, low-activity GA airports with less than 90,000 operations no longer need to submit updated forecasts as part of their planning processes. The airport sponsor can simply attest that “Current operations at the airport are less than 90,000 operations annually, and not expected to exceed 90,000 operations in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the preparation of a detailed forecast is not warranted. A consistency check with the TAF is not necessary when using this option. This option is not applicable for submissions associated with capacity projects or when applying to the Federal Contract Towers program or if a noise analysis is required in NEPA.
3. Only large and medium hub-towered airports with stable airline service can opt to use the TAF for their planning, NEPA, and NCP forecasts.
4. For towered airports, forecast scenarios of operations, based aircraft, and enplanements are considered to be consistent with the TAF and merit FAA approval if they meet the following through the near- and mid-term time frames, the baseline scenario differs from the current TAF baseline scenario by less than 10 percent at year 5 and 15 percent at year 10. FAA forecast approval is limited to the 10-year outlook period unless a longer period is specifically needed for NEPA analyses at 10+ years (e.g., 5 years after proposed project opening) or a BCA. ADOs may “accept for planning purposes” the long-term planning forecast covering years 11-20 when needed to assess and preserve options for future facility needs if predicted annual growth rates are within 0.5 percent (absolute) of the TAF’s baseline scenario long-term growth rates for that airport.  
5. The useful life of a forecast and approved critical aircraft can vary depending on the actual aircraft operation levels, aircraft types, passengers, and cargo at an airport in the years following forecast approval. If previously approved forecasts and critical aircraft are to be used to support proposed development and required funding forecast validation is essential. Prior to project justification under AIP and PFC funding criteria, existing and future critical aircraft need to be validated based on current monthly data per AC 150/5000-17.  
6. For facility planning, it’s beneficial to incorporate what-if scenarios, like new carriers, service cessation, or new aviation-demanding industries such as AAMs into the forecast documentation. Although these conceptual forecasts aren’t generally approved by the FAA as baseline scenarios, they can be useful if relevant activity occurs, and the sponsor provides quantitative evidence or official support letters to the ADO. Post coordination with FAA headquarters, these concepts can be approved by the ADO as new baseline scenario. 

As airport leadership, it is crucial to understand these guidelines and if/ how they could affect your planning, funding application, and documenting processes. In one case, at non-towered low-activity GA airports, the processes could be shorter considering there’s no need to prepare a forecast, whereas at medium-large hub airports forecast approval processes could be longer. 

Next Steps 

So, what can you do now to prepare your records and planning processes for forecasting? With many changes affecting the timeliness of approvals, it’s essential to prepare proper timelines and scopes of work (especially those related to capacity) to keep projects on schedule.  

We are ready and equipped to help your airport navigate these changes and keep approvals moving. While it is still advisable for airport staff involved with forecasts, funding, and grants to become acquainted with the complete FAA memorandum, our extensive expertise and in-depth knowledge ensure that we can provide the necessary guidance and support to integrate these guidelines into your planning processes seamlessly. We can provide a checklist to ensure forecast content and documents comply with the FAA’s memorandum.   

Our commitment and dedication to learning and understanding FAA and other government guidelines is just one way we help our clients succeed and expand the possibilities at their airports. Contact our planning team with questions about the new forecast review and approval instructions or for our forecast checklist.